From ESS-news.com

Solar and energy storage software company Energy Toolbase has linked up with Yotta Energy to simplify planning and deployment of the latter’s solar-panel-level energy storage product.

The SolarLeaf product offered by Texas-based solar equipment supplier Yotta provides direct-current (DC)-coupled modular storage for commercial customers.

According to Yotta, its SolarLEAF Battery (SL-1000) and 208 V and 480 V  three-phase microinverters work seamlessly together as a fully integrated energy storage system that properly integrates behind photovoltaic modules on commercial rooftops.

The system is engineered with an advanced passive thermal regulation technology, which is said to maximize the life and performance of the battery under extreme thermal conditions.

Now, Energy Toolbase has announced the configuration of its Acumen EMS energy management system product and its monitoring solution, ETB Monitor, for use with SolarLeaf systems.

The collaboration will enable modeling of storage-related savings and energy dispatch scenarios, simplifying the planning and deployment of SolarLeaf set-ups.

Continue reading at ESS-news.com

From pv magazine Global

The government of Ontario has said that its plan to commission at least 1.5 GW of grid-scale storage is part of its efforts to attract electric vehicle and battery manufacturing jobs and to establish a supply chain for the critical materials needed for the energy transition.

The Canadian province confirmed last week that the 4 GW of new power capacity required from 2025 will consist of at least 1.5 GW of storage plants, the same volume of natural gas electricity generation, and 1 GW from “other sources.” Last year, the province estimated its immediate future energy needs ran to 5 GW.

“Our government is building the electricity generation and storage needed to support our success in driving electrification and attracting new jobs to the province, including unprecedented investments from electric vehicles and battery manufacturing to clean steelmaking,” said Minister of Energy Todd Smith. “Saying no to jobs and investment is a non-starter for our government. An unreliable system with brownouts and blackouts is a non-starter for our government. With today’s actions we are ensuring that the electricity will continue to be there for families and businesses when they flip the switch.”

The government notice, which described the planned tenders as “the largest battery procurement in Canada’s history,” also noted that public utility Ontario Power Generation is developing Canada’s first small modular reactor (SMR) nuclear plant. It is not clear whether the SMR facility will form part of the “other” 1 GW of power capacity to be tendered by the provincial government.

The Canadian Renewable Energy Association presented the policy, which was first announced last year, as up to 2,500 MW of new energy storage and other non-emitting resources.

“Our government is building an integrated supply chain for critical minerals in Ontario as we become a leader in battery manufacturing,” said Ontario Minister of Mines George Pirie. “Energy system reliability and affordability is essential so that Ontario mines can continue to competitively produce the critical minerals we need for battery manufacturing and other technologies that support the transition to a clean economy.”

From pv magazine global

The first fruits of US President Joe Biden‘s Inflation Reduction Act have already been witnessed, with Swiss solar module and production line manufacturer Meyer Burger ramping up its solar panel production plans.

The heterojunction module maker cited the U.S. climate change and health care package as one of the reasons it is accelerating its manufacturing plans, along with a big module order from New York-based developer DE Shaw Renewable Investments. Publishing its first-half results on its website this week, Meyer Burger said the extension of the Investment Tax Credit for solar manufacturing in the United States – which was part of the Inflation Reduction Act – will be worth $0.07 times the nominal power output of each Meyer Burger module produced stateside.

DE Shaw has placed an order for 3.75 GW of the European manufacturer’s panels, to be delivered from 2024 to 2029. It will pay a “substantial annual down payment” to help Meyer Burger fund the production capacity required to meet such delivery requirements.

However, the European company said the U.S. tax incentive and customer deposits will not be sufficient to finance a doubling of its manufacturing capacity to 3 GW per year. The business, headquartered in Gwatt, Switzerland, said it would need a further CHF 250 million ($262.3 million) to add 1.5 GW of production lines at its base in Thalheim, Germany, and 1 GW at its location in Goodyear, Arizona. Details of the fundraising effort will be announced to shareholders “in the next months,” the company said.

Traditionally a solar production equipment supplier, Meyer Burger’s decision to venture into module production has come at a cost to its bottom line as it ramps up its panel-making facilities. First-half revenue leapt from CHF 18 million in the first six months of last year to CHF 56.7 million this time around, with Meyer Burger stating that it was successfully passing on rising input costs to customers.

That led to a widening in net six-month losses, from the CHF 37.2 million shed in January-June 2021 to CHF 41 million. The investment required for module production has seen the company’s cash balance fall from CHF 247 million at the end of last year to CHF 186 million at the end of June. The good news is that DE Shaw has an option to expand its order to up to 5 GW of high-efficiency modules and to extend the length of the supply deal.

From pv magazine global

The acquisition of Spanish solar tracker maker STI Norland by Array Technologies saw net losses for shareholders in the US company almost treble in the second quarter.

Following a net loss of $5.5 million in April-June 2021, shareholders in New Mexico-based Array Technologies had to shoulder a $15 million hit in the second quarter of this year. In its April-June figures, released this week, Array Technologies said business from STI contributed $72.7 million to a quarterly revenue figure that more than doubled year on year to $425 million.

The Albuquerque-based manufacturer highlighted the importance of the passage of Biden‘s Inflation Reduction Act, which concerns clean energy and health care subsidies and measures to pay down the national deficit. The blocking of the original, more ambitious Build Back Better Act by Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (West Virginia) had prompted Array Technologies to predict that $240 million worth of its US solar-project related business would be threatened.

The expected passage of the Inflation Reduction Act – which would spend $369 billion combating climate change and incentivizing clean energy, and would extend the investment tax credit for solar by another 10 years – prompted Array Technologies to state that $240 million will now be safe, even if the projects concerned will not take shape this year.

“The Inflation Reduction Act, when passed, provides meaningful clarity on the long-term incentive structure for the solar industry including investments that aim to tackle climate change,” said Array Technologies CEO Kevin Hostetler. “This clarity allows participants to confidently make decisions on future investments, therein accelerating the adoption of solar energy.”

The company balance sheet published this week showed that its cash pile fell from $368 million at the end of last year to $51 million on June 30. But total assets rose over that period, from $1.14 billion to $1.78 billion, in part thanks to leaps in goodwill and other intangible assets. Liabilities rose from $975 million to $1.5 billion over the same period.

In November, pv magazine reported the STI Norland acquisition would cost Array Technologies €351 million ($360 million) in cash plus €13.9 million in company stock, with STI shareholders entitled to up to €55 million extra this year, based on the Spanish company’s gross earnings in 2021.

Capital costs for 100 MWdc solar projects are set to rise 6% this year, according to one analyst.

US-owned Wood Mackenzie issued a note this week which also estimated China will add 75 GW of the 110 GW of new solar to arrive in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022.

The world will pass a terrawatt of solar generation capacity this year, the Edinburgh-based company added, and North America will see its share of the world’s new solar capacity double from the 11% recorded last year.

How much?

It was not clear from the note whether the project capital cost rise predicted would apply solely to the US.

The analyst said it had observed a “substantial amount of [solar] module volumes for utility scale projects” postponed after Californian manufacturer Auxin Solar in February lodged an anti-circumvention petition to the authorities.

Auxin has claimed Chinese companies are manufacturing products on home soil and only putting the final touches to them in Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia before labeling them as made in the latter-named nations to get around US anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

An anti-circumvention investigation is under way and Wood Mackenzie said the development is also prompting some manufacturers to shift “importer of record” responsibility onto panel buyers.

Germany will lead the European push for solar this decade, Wood Mackenzie predicted, because of a new governing coalition and the nation’s dependence on Russian gas.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means the Russia and Caspian Sea regions will add no new solar capacity this year, the analyst said.

Solar manufacturing

Rising solar costs will be partially offset by plans to add, this year, production lines sufficient to produce an extra 200,000 metric tons of polysilicon per year, plus 1 GW more cells, 1 GW more wafers, and 500 MW more modules.

The analyst noted moves by India this year to tax solar imports and bolster domestic production would also “shift the pricing and supply dynamics in the US and India.”

The self-healing properties of perovskite solar cells, plus the fact that their well-publicized stability and yield issues are linked to moisture and oxygen exposure, could make them ideal candidates for space exploration, according to a group of US scientists.

Working from that theory, researchers from the University of Oklahoma, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the University of North Texas examined techniques to test how conventional solar cells perform in space. They aimed to discover whether the same process would be appropriate for putting perovskite devices through their paces.

Not only did they discover the testing processes used for non-perovskite devices would not hold up with the alternative technology, they also found, in the words of one of the academics, that “the community in general is not testing them properly.”

In developing a set of perovskite-specific testing protocols for space use – published in the April 11 issue of Joule – the researchers found the perovskite cells lived up to their expectation of being able to withstand the sort of fierce radiation exposure they would face outside Earth’s atmosphere. “But not for the reasons many believed,” according to University of Oklahoma physicist Ian Sellers, a co-author of the paper.

Rather than exposing the devices to high-energy particles, Sellers and his colleagues used lower-energy protons, which are prevalent in space and which could be halted in different parts of the perovskite cells.

The academics found perovskite devices are indeed “radiation hard” because they are soft and not very dense. While the radiation particles caused the cells to become disordered and damaged, the devices “will also very quickly settle, or heal, and go back to normal,” according to Sellers, who compared the process to water which has been disturbed returning to a still state.

The protocols developed by the academics, reported on EurekAlert this week, could pave the way for perovskite solar devices to be used in permanent installations on the moon, or even to be manufactured there. In addition, they could be deployed in intense radiation environments, such as Jupiter, and to power satellites in high-radiation polar orbits.

The research was led by Joseph Luther, senior scientist for chemical materials and nanoscience at NREL, in cooperation with former University of Oklahoma post-doctoral researcher Brandon Durant, now of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. They worked with NREL postdoc Ahmad Kirmani, NASA Glenn Research Center engineer Lyndsey McMillon-Brown, and Bibhudutta Rout, an associate professor in the department of physics at the University of North Texas at Denton.

from pv magazine Global

Israeli solar inverter and battery maker SolarEdge has said it expects its record-breaking run for revenue, including from its solar business, to continue during the April-June 2022 reporting period.

Announcing its first-quarter 2022 figures, the manufacturer said the new high for revenue posted during the January-March period, of $655 million, is likely to be topped by an expected $710 million to $740 million for April to June.

That first-quarter 2022 figure included solar business trade worth $608 million, a record for SolarEdge in the segment. The company expects to have generated $660 million to $690 million during the April-June period.

The company shipped 2.13 GWac worth of inverters in the first three months of the 2022, although its net income slipped 19% from the final three months of 2021 to $33.1 million. No explanation was given for the reverse in the press release issued by SolarEdge to announce the results, nor on the investor slide presentation on the company website as pv magazine went to press. But it could reflect the rising materials and shipping costs which have dogged solar manufacturers worldwide, especially as CEO Zvi Lando stated the rise in revenue was driven by business in the United States and 14 European countries.

Gross margin in the company’s solar business also slipped, from 34.5% in the first three months of 2021, and 32.8% in October-December 2021, to 30.2% in the first three months of 2022. The figure could retreat again during April-June 2022, with SolarEdge stating it could range from 28% to 31%.

Whatever the explanation for the quarterly changes, they do not appear to have affected the company’s bottom line. With SolarEdge raising $651 million on March 17, the cash and bank balances that amounted to $548 million at the end of December 2021 had risen to $979 million by the end of March 2022, the company said.

From pv magazine Global

US microinverter manufacturer Enphase Energy has predicted the record revenue generated in the first three months of the year will be bettered in the current quarter.

The California-based company, which also manufactures batteries, posted revenue of $441 million in the January-March window, up 7% from the $413 million recorded in the final quarter of 2021. It said it expects $490 million to $520 million worth of business in the current trading period.

Those numbers translated into net income of $51.8 million, down from $52.6 million in the previous quarter, with no obvious explanation offered in the first-quarter update published on the Enphase website. However, the company did add that its own, non-generally accepted accounting principle figure would have been $110 million, helped along by the inclusion of $47.8 million of stock-based compensation.

Enphase said it expects shift 130 MW to 140 MW of its IQ Batteries in the current quarter. It shipped around 2.84 million of its microinverters in the January-March period – down 6% on the previous quarter – for a total capacity of 1,029 MWdc, plus 120 MW worth of  IQ Batteries.

The company expects operating expenses in the current three-month period to rise to $128 million to $131 million because of a share incentive scheme and acquisition costs, which it expects will amount to $57 million.

A slashing in net interest costs for Enphase, from $12.7 million at the end of 2021 to $2.74 million at the end of March, helped the company’s cash balance rise from $119 million to $252 million over the same period. At the same time, its non-current debts rose from $952 million to $1.2 billion, with the manufacturer having acquired business leads company SolarLeadFactory LLC in March.

From pv magazine global

German polysilicon manufacturer Wacker Chemie‘s increased focus on semiconductor-linked material, rather than the silicon needed for solar panels, will see the business continue to fall down the global poly producer rankings, according to analyst Johannes Bernreuter.

A press release issued by the analyst’s company, Bernreuter Research, warned that development, together with the huge push in solar-grade polysilicon fab expansion being witnessed in China, will see the latter nation corner more than 90% of global supply by 2023.

‘Follow China’s lead’

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened the eyes for what it means to be economically dependent on a dictatorial regime,” said Bernreuter. “Western governments should not make the same mistake with China. It is high time to establish non-Chinese solar supply chains. China has demonstrated what the ingredients of success are: low electricity rates for power-hungry polysilicon and ingot production, loan guarantees for private investment, cost-efficient equipment manufacturing, and strategic foresight.”

With Tongwei having supplanted Wacker as the world’s biggest polysilicon producer in 2020, the German manufacturer has been shunted down into fourth place, based on last year’s performance as recorded by Bernreuter Research.

On the climb

GCL Technology has climbed to second on the list. Like Tongwei, it produced more than 100,000 tons of polysilicon last year. Both companies, according to Bernreuter Research, will have the capacity to make more than 370,000 tons per year by 2023.

Daqo New Energy remains in third place in the latest ranking, followed closely by Wacker in fourth; Xinte Energy; and number six Xinjiang East Hope New Energy, which produces polysilicon in Xinjiang.

Silicon production in Xinjiang is a controversial issue outside China – particularly the topic of whether forced labor is a part of the solar value chain. The US House of Representatives in December drafted the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which proposes banning all imports from Xinjiang unless it can be proven forced labor played no part in their manufacture.

Bernreuter Research predicted the expansionary strategy of Chinese poly makers would see Wacker’s market share contract further with the German business due to trail Xinte and East Hope by 2023, in sixth place.

Losing share

That would mark a similar path to that taken by former world number one, the US-based Hemlock Semiconductor, which is owned by US tech company Corning. Since losing top-dog status in the poly ranking in 2012, Hemlock has steadily fallen down the list to ninth in the current edition.

South Korean poly maker OCI, which manufactures most of its product in Malaysia, is seventh in the ranking and the only European presence in the top 10 is related to the 15% stake Norwegian company REC Silicon holds in the Shaanxi Non Ferrous Tianhong REC Silicon Materials joint venture in China, which is 85% held by a state-owned miner. REC’s fully-owned silicon production facilities are based in the US.

From pv magazine global

The latest doom-laden report issued by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has highlighted solar as having the biggest potential for energy sector emission reduction this decade.

The “Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change” document published yesterday by the IPCC estimated solar panels could reduce carbon emissions by 4.25 gigatons per year this decade, with more than half that potential at a lower cost than reference electricity prices, rising to an additional $50 to $100 per ton of CO₂ abated. The report noted, however, that estimate does not include the cost of integrating solar into electric grids.

That carbon emission reduction potential compares to around a billion tons per year abated by industrial materials efficiency; 750 million tons per year from each of building-hosted renewables, such as rooftop solar, and light-duty electric vehicles (EVs), such as passenger cars; and around 250 million tons from heavy-duty EVs, including e-buses.

Reiterating the 85% price falls seen for solar in the last decade – and the tenfold rise in deployment volumes – the report stated renewables will remain the best-cost option for generation this decade but will require greater sector coupling and use of energy storage, smart grids, demand-side management, and green hydrogen and its derivatives to fulfill its potential to drive down energy sector carbon emissions.

Only supporting policy, technology availability, finance, and public and political support will enable the ironing out of global imbalances which, for instance, have seen such low take-up of solar in sub-Saharan Africa, the IPCC noted.

The critical importance of the energy sector’s workhorse role in limiting global temperature rises this century was emphasized by the authors of the 64-page policymaker summary of the full, 3,675-page report. “In modeled global pathways that limit warming to 2 C … or lower, most remaining fossil fuel CO₂ emissions until the time of global net zero CO₂ emissions are projected to occur outside the power sector, mainly in industry and transport,” they wrote.

Low-carbon transport

The study estimated transport will be unable to hit net-zero this century, despite the low-carbon contributions of EVs, green hydrogen and derivatives such as ammonia and synthetic fuel (synfuel). That means negative carbon emissions will have to be found in other sectors, including from the direct capture of carbon from the air, which the IPCC said would make a contribution of less than 1% to the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction efforts in its renewables-heavy future scenario.

While green hydrogen and its associated fuels will have to come down in price, the report stated: “Electric vehicles powered by low-emissions electricity offer the largest decarbonization potential for land-based transport, on a life cycle basis.” The document added, more will have to be invested in EV infrastructure, and raw materials supply fears will have to be addressed by resource diversification, circular materials flows, and energy and material efficiency improvements.

While electrification can make a contribution to carbon reduction from short haul shipping and aviation, the sector will need to have much more ambitious climate change aims and governance to do its part, the IPCC stated.

The crucial role to be played by low-carbon electricity and energy carriers in reducing the CO₂ footprint of global transport is a notable example of the sector coupling called for by the UN body.

Demand management, materials and energy efficiency, circular material flows, and hydrogen will all be needed to decarbonize industry, with synfuels, ammonia and heat pumps making a contribution in light industry, mining, and manufacturing, the report stated.

The IPCC also noted the potential for renewable energy resource-rich areas of the globe to claim new chemicals and steel industry facilities, as has been noted by African commentators who oppose the idea of exporting all African hydrogen.

Building sector

Solar can also play a part in reducing the carbon footprint of buildings, through retrofitting in established global cities and as stipulated in building codes which could green the building materials supply chain in emerging urban centers. The report stated: “The 2020-2030 decade is critical for accelerating the learning of knowhow, building the technical and institutional capacity, setting the appropriate governance structures, ensuring the flow of finance, and in developing the skills needed to fully capture the mitigation potential of buildings.”

The IPCC reiterated a familiar refrain, that the world must invest three to six times more on climate change mitigation and adaptation to stay below a two-degree temperature rise this century, depending on the scenario modeled. The biggest funding shortfall in such measures concerns the agriculture and forestry sector, the report noted, an industry where more intensive farming and production for less meat-intensive diets could free up more sites for solar and wind plants.

Carbon price

The study said carbon pricing has proven useful to drive emission reductions from low-cost technologies but less so for the more expensive measures needed for hard-to-abate sectors such as industry. The report’s authors did take encouragement, however, from a lack of evidence emissions trading schemes had led to carbon leakage, thanks to their design.

As far as paying the bill to stave off catastrophic climate change, pushing the developed world to meet its commitment to provide $100 billion per year to developing countries would be a start, as would sharing, and thereby reducing, investment risk in developing markets, the IPCC added.

And the cost of not coughing up? According to the study, the policies in place around the world at the end of 2020 have us on target for a 3.2 C average temperature rise this century.

The world will need 5.2TW of solar power generation capacity by 2030, and 14TW by mid century, to have any chance of limiting global average temperature rises this century to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) said today.

The Abu Dhabi-based international body launched the latest edition of its World Energy Transitions Outlook report at the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue event and director-general Francesco La Camera, writing the foreword, spelled out: “Progress across all energy uses has been woefully inadequate.”

The world will have to install 450GW of new solar capacity each year – most of it utility scale – for the rest of this decade, with China and India to lead Asia to a roughly half share of the world’s installed PV capacity in 2030, the report’s authors estimated.

What is needed

Elsewhere, North America will need to install 90GW per year of solar to claim a 14% share of the world’s operating panels at the end of the decade, and Europe’s 19% slice of the pie will require 55GW of annual solar capacity additions.

European funding will also help North Africa make its contribution to the 70GW of annual solar capacity additions which will be required across the Middle East and Africa with European energy demand ensuring grid connections with North Africa flourish.

To have a hope of avoiding the worst effects of climate change, Latin America will need 20GW of new solar annually this decade and a further “more than 2GW” will be needed each year across the Oceania and Pacific region, the Irena report estimated.

Of course, it is not just solar that the world needs and, with the 348-page report calling for massive electrification and energy efficiency efforts, enabled by the full suite of clean energy sources, hydrogen, and biomass, we will have to start devoting $5.7 trillion per year to the energy transition for the rest of the decade, according to Irena.

That can be feasible if the $700 billion per year channeled into fossil fuels is immediately diverted to the transition, the publication stated. Public investment in the transition will have to immediately double, too, said Irena, to attract the remaining money needed from the private sector, which would bear most of the financial burden.

Jobs

In return for the investment sought – including to ensure there are 147 million electric vehicles (EVs) per year hitting the roads in 2050, that $131 billion is invested annually in EV charging by that point, and that 350GW of green hydrogen electrolyzers are operating as early as 2030 – the world can anticipate a jobs dividend.

Irena has estimated the 12 million job losses it anticipates in the fossil fuel and nuclear industries will be comfortably outweighed by “close to” 85 million new energy-transition roles this decade, including 26.5 million in clean energy.

It is all a matter of political will, Irena pointed out, with policymakers also needing to usher in sufficient international grid connections and flexibility; training; utility scale batteries; electricity demand-side management; digital tools; peer-to-peer power trading; community ownership of renewables; time-of-use energy tariffs; and net billing systems.

From pv magazine global

Business data company IHS Markit has predicted lithium-ion battery prices will not fall until 2024, thanks to rising metal prices, soaring demand for electric vehicles (EVs), and China’s near monopoly on the industry.

The analyst, which has produced a list of cleantech trends for 2022, also said current green hydrogen project timescales will have the world on schedule for a supply crunch of the energy storage medium in 2025.

Amid fierce EV demand for lithium-ion phosphate batteries, London-based, S&P Global-owned IHS has predicted a battery module price increase of 5% this year will drive up the overall cost of stationary battery projects around 3%.

With the analyst having recorded lithium-ion battery price rises of 10-20% in the “later months of 2021,” it predicted price tags will not return to a downward trajectory for another two years and even that development will depend on manufacturers expanding production capacity and seeing off demand from EV makers.

The green hydrogen bottleneck anticipated mid decade is in part a result of project announcements that included plans laid last year for almost 250GW of electrolyzer capacity – up from 70GW worth of announcements in 2020, and less than 15GW in 2019. IHS, however, predicted further electrolyzer production plans this year and next will help ease any supply squeeze and reiterated an estimate Europe’s green hydrogen demand alone is expected to require up to 250GW of solar generation capacity this decade.

Noting moves by the US and India to onshore solar manufacturing, IHS said it expects the logistics and input cost headaches, which drove up the price of solar panels last year will continue to inflate costs this year, particularly for the next four months. The market data firm did state, however, new manufacturing capacity of solar panel raw material polysilicon is coming online faster than expected, solar wafers are becoming more efficient, and new wafer producers are entering the market.

While solar and wind prices may continue to rise this year, IHS said, clean energy remains competitive, in part thanks to cheaper financing costs as banks become accustomed to backing such projects and the world experiences a continued enthusiasm for green finance.

Smaller

Solar projects with generation capacities no larger than 5MW will account for 45% of new arrays this year, according to IHS Markit, with China and Germany driving more than 60% of demand in the segment.

Brazil will continue to see demand for sub-5MW projects, with net-metered arrays installed through next year not subject to grid charges, and established smaller-scale solar markets in the US and France will be joined by new entrants, with a graphic produced by IHS Markit suggesting they could include Japan, India and Italy.

Home and business rooftop arrays continue to be competitive despite rising panel prices, IHS said, because they are competing against retail energy prices rather than the wholesale levels, with which utility scale projects have to contend.

From pv magazine global.

The world’s major solar manufacturers can be expected to switch from industry standard PERC (passivated emitter and rear cell) products to tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) technology “within the next few years,” according to a US analyst.

The technological shift prompted by manufacturers nearing PERC’s conversion efficiency threshold of 23.7% – for commercially produced products – is one of the predictions made by Denver-based Clean Energy Associates (CEA) in its survey of the solar manufacturing industry during the last three months of 2021.

The analyst also revealed Chinese manufacturer GCL exited the solar cell production market in the fourth quarter of last year, contributing to a slower-than-expected expansion of PV cell and module capacity expansion.

With the CEA citing the removal of old production facilities by Chinese manufacturers; tough global manufacturing conditions; and a difficult trade relationship between solar superpower China and the US as other reasons for delayed cell and module capacities, the analyst said the picture was entirely different for the manufacture of solar panel raw material polysilicon.

The report, announced in a press release issued by the CEA on Friday, estimated 500,000 tons of annual poly production capacity will come online this year, with a lot of facilities that were set in train in late 2020 due to hit full production in “early to mid 2022.”

That should see a reverse in polysilicon prices which rose sharply last year, contributing to solar panel price hikes. Chinese polysilicon manufacturer Daqo today announced it had signed a five-year deal with an unnamed “leading solar manufacturing company in China.” Daqo expects to supply around 30,000 tons of poly to the end of 2026, with the actual volume and prices to be determined monthly.

Although there were fewer new cell and module production lines ramped up in the closing months of last year, the CEA said it expects expansions to resume pace this year with around 45GW of new annual solar panel manufacturing capacity to arrive by the end of December, and more than 55GW next year.

Chinese demand could play a significant factor with the CEA speculating Beijing could remove clean electricity from this year’s application of its “dual control” policy, which limits energy consumption and the energy intensity of manufacturing processes and which last year prompted electricity shortages.

Supply chains

The solar market will also be pumped over the next four years by manufacturing plans announced in Europe, as the region attempts to wean itself off an over dependence on Chinese supply chains.

The CEA expects solar ingot and wafer production lines could “potentially” amount to more than 20GW of annual capacity in Europe in 2025; cell output capability “could grow” to more than 30GW in that year; and the module figure can be “expected to increase” to more than 45GW by the middle of the decade.

From pv magazine global

Over the next four years solar tracker makers can expect a boom in the Americas, Polish policymakers will continue to bask in the success of their household solar incentive scheme, and the Japanese PV market will center on business installations.

Those were among the findings of a survey of the prospects for a global solar market that will surpass 1TW of new generation capacity out to 2025, according to analyst IHS Markit.

The London-based market data company has extrapolated the performance of solar last year and recent policy changes to predict what the world market will look like over the next four years.

The expected dominance of China in most market segments will come as little surprise to industry observers, with the Asia-Pacific region set to account for 51% of installations over the four-year window, led by the solar superpower, which IHS Markit says will corner 36% of new capacity alone.

The region will trail Europe when it comes to residential solar though, according to an infographic released by the data company on Thursday, with Germany the leading nation in a region which it is expected will claim 43% of the global market, versus 30% in Asia-Pacific, 24% in the Americas, and just 3% in Africa and the Middle East.

The US will actually lead a residential market, which will offer more resilience than the large scale solar segment that is suffering from rising panel prices and logistics headaches, according to IHS Markit, which said the United States will account for 19% of all new home solar arrays through 2025. Australia will not lag far behind, with 18%, and Germany and Poland can both be expected to add more household systems than China, the data company predicted.

From pv magazine global.

The latest set of numbers posted by SolarEdge again emphasized how well the Israeli inverter and energy storage company appears to have weathered the Covid-19 crisis, with CEO Zvi Lando reporting record revenues for the final three months of 2021 and the full year.

The figures he was highlighting were $552 million of business in the October-to-December window – up 5% on the previous three months and 54% on the same period of a Covid-affected 2020 – and $1.96 billion for the whole year, which amounted to a 35% rise on the $1.46 billion recorded in 2020.

The only flies in the ointment were a dip in gross margin during the final three months of last year, which saw SolarEdge bank less profit per product according to quarterly and annual comparisons and the fact the company posted lower net income in the last quarter than it did in July-to-September.

Neither of those numbers, however, appear to have affected the resilient company’s bottom line, with SolarEdge reporting it had $548 million in the bank at the end of the year, some $24 million more than it had three months earlier.

That net income dip in the final quarter failed to prevent the manufacturer posting a full-year figure which, at $169 million, was 21% higher than the $140 million banked for 2020.

Putting aside a rare proofreading error in the summary of the figures released by SolarEdge yesterday – which suggested the three-month outlook section of the document related to Q4 2021, rather than the current window – and Lando and the board appear positive about current performance, amid predictions of more record-busting quarterly revenue of $615-645 million, including $575-595 million from the company’s solar business.

Global solar generation capacity could hit around 3.4TW this decade, according to BloombergNEF‘s head of solar analysis Jenny Chase.

Chase published the prediction in an article surveying the current state of solar, and its future prospects, for sustainable energy journal Joule which was also published on the ScienceDirect website.

The article, View from the Solar Industry: We Don’t Need COP26 to Shine, But What Should We Worry About? included Bloomberg’s estimate for the volume of solar which will have been installed worldwide in 2030, with the analyst having estimated 183GW of photovoltaics were installed last year and this year will bring “comfortably more than 200GW.”

Chase cited the polysilicon shortage which drove up solar panel prices last year as one possible headwind, although the solar analyst expects the situation to ease with the arrival of new poly manufacturing capacity this year.

Shortages of land and grid connection points in some of the biggest solar markets could also pose problems for PV although Chase points out the industry’s biggest developers don’t seem to have been significantly slowed by those hurdles yet, with the solar expert adding: “Solar and wind deployment could not now be stopped if we wanted to.”

In terms of how much renewables are needed to hit a net zero world in mid century – with Chase remarking upon how much faster the scale of solar capacity is growing than that of wind – BloombergNEF’s renewables-focused “green” scenario would require 5.3TW of solar this decade – with 1TW of it to power green hydrogen production – and 19.7TW by 2050.

Alternative routes mapped by the analyst lean on the nuclear and carbon capture, use and storage technologies which, as yet, are not developing with sufficient speed, and Chase sounded a positive note to readers daunted by the scale of the job required by remarking, in relation to historic forecasts for clean energy roll-out: “As analysts, we are far better at seeing problems in each country than we are at imagining transformative change to world energy systems.”

The supply chain problems which helped drive up the cost of solar power equipment last year will ease in 2022, according to Scottish analyst Wood Mackenzie.

A note issued yesterday by the U.S.-owned data company, which highlighted how such issues drove up the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) across the Asia-Pacific region in 2021, saw senior analyst Rishab Shrestha state: “Renewables’ supply chain bottlenecks are expected to ease in 2022 and beyond, and the respective LCOE will return to a declining trend.”

With Chinese polysilicon companies ramping up production facilities, WoodMac said an easing in supply problems, and related cost rises, would reverse a 9% year-on-year rise in the average cost of solar projects across the region recorded last year, to US$0.086/kWh – the first such rise in the history of the region’s solar industry.

The only market not to experience more expensive PV electricity last year was solar superpower China, in part thanks to the zero-tolerance Covid policy which has attracted so much attention in western nations of late. Rampant rises in the cost of fossil fuels in China, domestic solar manufacturing, and the nation’s climate change commitments were also factors, according to Verisk-owned WoodMac.

Steepling rises in fossil fuel costs last year ensured that even with their unusual price premiums, Asia-Pacific solar and onshore wind projects – the latter rising in cost 2%, to US$0.103/kWh – gained ground in their economic business case against gas-fired power projects, which became 46% more costly in the region in 2021, and coal plants, which cost 19% more than in 2020.

While solar and onshore wind facilities are 12-29% cheaper over their project lifetime than fossil fuel equivalents in India, China and Australia, “a significant renewables premium” across the other Asia-Pacific countries ensures such clean power plants are 16% more costly over their operating life than gas and coal generation sites, across the region as a whole.

That situation will be reversed by the end of the decade, according to WoodMac, which predicted solar projects, and to a lesser extent onshore wind sites, will together be 28% cheaper than coal across the Asia-Pacific market in 2030 and will achieve at least cost parity with gas. By that stage, solar and onshore wind will be 50-55% cheaper than coal in India, China and Australia, casting into doubt the efficacy of the successful push by the former two nations to water down a desired global commitment to phase out coal use, at the COP26 climate change talks in Glasgow in November.

With gas-fired generation costs potentially set to be driven up 70-100% by the costs of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology this decade, according to the analyst, the current 50% price premium of renewables with energy storage against the fossil fuel could be removed by 2030.

Energy company Royal Dutch Shell has announced it will acquire American solar and storage project developer Savion LLC and said it expects to conclude the deal this month.

Clean energy division Shell New Energies announced the move today in a press release issued on the Cision PR platform, but did not specify how much the acquisition will cost or how the deal will be structured.

The Anglo-Dutch energy business will buy Savion from the Green Investment Group owned by Australian investor Macquarie.

Shell said its planned new subsidiary boasts a pipeline running to more than 18 GW of solar power generation and energy storage projects across more than 100 projects in 26 U.S. states.

Quoted in today’s statement, Wael Sawan, integrated gas and renewables & energy solutions director for Shell, said: “Savion’s significant asset pipeline, highly experienced team, and proven success as a renewable energy project developer make it a compelling fit for Shell’s growing integrated power business.”

Shell in October announced it wants to halve its CO₂ emissions – compared to its 2016 performance – this decade, including the removal of emissions from all its owned or controlled assets and from electricity it purchases. The company in February announced a plan to attain net zero carbon operations by mid century.

The latest edition of the Renewables Market Report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that if the higher costs which have driven up the price of solar panels this year continue throughout 2022, it could add $70 billion to the PV investment tab over the next five years. That would have been enough to install an additional 95 GW of solar capacity during the period, in terms of the industry’s pre-supply-chain-shock prices, the Paris-based body has calculated.

As usual, the report presents a glass-half-full, glass-half empty appraisal, with the IEA anticipating the world will have installed a record volume of solar this year, spelling out how it would be possible to unlock an additional 25% of renewables plants on top of the huge volumes expected to 2026 … and then pointing out that would still not keep the world on track for net zero in 2050.

The international organisation believes a record, near-160 GW of solar will have been added worldwide this year, with 17% more added than came online in 2020, and predicted the world will be adding 200 GW per year of photovoltaics in five years’ time. Dealing with the familiar list of solar industry grumbles out to 2026 – sluggish permitting, grid integration issues, social acceptance, inconsistent policy, insufficient financial incentives, and costly developing-world finance – could raise that number to almost 260 GW per annum by the time the 2026 numbers are tallied, estimated the IEA.

The report’s authors spell out the sort of effort required to achieve its ‘accelerated case’ outlook for solar: China must define how its renewable portfolio standard – requiring generators to produce a specified volume of clean power – and the green certificates for renewable energy will function, and must support residential arrays after their feed-in tariff (FIT) is wound down this month. Even without those remedies, the IEA said, China will continue to lead the way with 1.2 TW of solar and wind capacity by 2026. That would be enough, wrote IEA executive director Fatih Birol, to ensure the nation “could well achieve a peak in its CO₂ emissions well before 2030,” as a government target stipulates.

Remedies

Elsewhere, to further ramp solar deployment, according to the IEA, the U.S. should extend the investment tax credit for solar; India should get the finances of its power companies in order, extend grids and better incentivise small-scale, ‘distributed-generation‘ arrays; the EU should smooth permitting rules for participation in big solar capacity auctions, and expand the ambition of the procurement rounds, and could also support rooftop systems with its post-Covid recovery and resilience funding; Japan must smooth the transition from FITs to premium payments topping up the wholesale electricity price; and governments in the Middle East and North Africa could hold capacity auctions more often and expand their grids faster.

Even if that perennial wish list remains unfulfilled, the report’s authors stated, the world can be expected to add almost 1.1 TW of solar over the next five years.

In the best of all worlds for solar, however – an ‘accelerated-case’ jamboree of friction-free permitting, bags of cash for rooftop solar, and grids accelerating at a rate of knots – the extra 25% of solar panels that would be installed would still have to double to keep the world on track for net zero in 2050.

And that’s not to mention the IEA’s fear a year of continued high panel prices – driven by more costly polysilicon, steel, copper, aluminium and shipping costs – could wipe out three year’s worth of cost reductions, not to mention the threat of central banks raising interest rates and, thereby, project finance costs, or the plethora of trade measures imposed on solar imports. Those listed in the IEA study ranged from the duty slapped on solar panels by the U.S. in 2022 through to India’s plan to apply a 40% duty on foreign panels and a 25% charge on solar cells, from April.

So the question remains, is our glass half-full or half-empty?

U.S. thin-film solar manufacturer First Solar has announced it expects to have more cash and equivalents in the assets column at the end of the year than previously thought, even though logistics problems dragged on its third-quarter results.

Despite CEO Mark Widmar warning “extended transit times for ocean freight impacted our third-quarter results,” and net sales for the three-month period falling $46 million from Q2, to $584 million, the solar manufacturer said it now expects to have a year-end net cash balance of $1.45-1.55 billion, a range $100 million higher than previously forecast.

That may be, in part, due to a lower-than-expected 2021 capital expenditure figure which has come in from $825-875 million to $675-725 million, with First Solar reporting, in Thursday’s financial update, it began building its third factory in Ohio in the last quarter, and also started ordering equipment for its first Indian fab.

First Solar said it produced 2 GWdc of modules last quarter and pointed out the $51 million operating-income figure posted in Q3 was battered by $66 million worth of depreciation charges, $9 million related to the aforementioned production start-up costs, and another $6 million for shares compensation awards.

The other full-year forecasts made by the company remained unchanged and include an expected annual ‘gross margin’ – net sales minus the cost of producing the goods but without selling expenses, tax etc taken into account – of $695-760 million. First Solar expects full-year net sales worth $2.88-3.1 billion on the back of an anticipated 7.6-8 GW of products shipped, as previously announced.

The latest quarterly figures published by U.S. solar and energy storage installer SunPower appear to indicate the days are numbered for its commercial and industrial (C&I) business unit.

Having last month announced it would consider divesting the commercial operation, the Californian business last week revealed C&I projects had contributed an $8 million hit to its third-quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) figure of $17.5 million. Without that red result from its C&I customers – caused, in part by supply chain problems – the earnings number would have bested the $22.2 million posted in the previous three-month window.

Although chief financial officer Manavendra Sial insisted in Wednesday’s update the “commercial and industrial solutions (CIS) business also had strong bookings for the third quarter,” the financial update added: “The company is considering strategic options for CIS and will provide an update in the fourth quarter.”

The uncertainty over the future of the business unit was deepened by the fact SunPower – which is controlled by French giant TotalEnergies – stripped out its CIS numbers – plus its already-confirmed legacy businesses – in the section of the update devoted to its expectations for the current quarter and full year.

That is probably because the inclusion of the commercial and industrial segment has prompted SunPower to revise down its full-year expectations for revenue, from the previous $1.41-1.49 billion, and for EBITDA, from $110-130 million. Curiously, the press release issued to announce the Q3 update did not appear to specify what those outlook numbers have been pulled back to.

SunPower posted a quarterly net loss of $84.4 million – down from net income of $75.2 million in the previous window – with the reverse “primarily driven by” a negative adjustment to the value of the stake SunPower holds in microinverter and storage business Enphase Energy, which would appear to have knocked that income-loss number by $86 million, according to the section of the update concerned with more friendly, non-generally accepted accounting principles.

The installer was rather more keen to stress its rising number of residential customers, with 108 MW of such systems recognized in the last quarter, to take the business to a total 390,000 household customers, not including the extra 20,000 acquired when SunPower paid “up to $165 million” for rival Blue Raven Solar last month, to open up new custom in the Northwestern and Mid-Atlantic markets of the U.S.

SunPower said it expects to recognize 345-375 MW of residential solar systems this year, with 55,000-60,000 new customers added. The business also said it is on track to hit $100 million worth of storage systems, and revealed it had secured a grant of $6.65 million from the U.S. Department of Energy last quarter, for its role in the ‘connected communities’ project which will assess the merits of community versus individual-household storage systems in two locations.

From pv magazine Global

The compelling economic case for global policymakers to follow the lead set by California in mandating solar on newly-built homes has been laid out in a report by U.S. analyst Bloomberg New Energy Finance and French electrical equipment company Schneider Electric.

The Realizing the Potential of Customer-sited Solar study claims the five-year payback period for solar arrays retrofitted onto buildings in the Golden State is halved for systems installed at the initial construction stage of buildings, because of reductions in marketing, sales, labor and construction costs. Thus, according to yesterday’s report, solar systems on new-builds in California can offer an internal rate of return (IRR) of 40% per year on their investment cost, rather than 20% IRR offered by retrofitted systems.

BloombergNEF and Schneider have calculated the 18.5% IRR for retrofitted solar systems in France could rise to as much as 28% if photovoltaics were to be made compulsory on new-build homes.

The thrust of the report is the need for legislators to introduce policies to unlock global rooftop solar potential which, the authors of the study claim, could drive 2 TW of household and commercial on-site solar by mid century, plus around 1 TWh of local energy storage.

France and California, together with Spain, Australia, and the U.S. state of New Jersey, were examined in the study, with the authors noting successful incentives had helped drive around 500 MW of rooftop PV in the former market by last year, with French businesses able to enjoy a nine-year payback for on-site commercial systems. The economics of home solar in Australia have prompted a wave of more than 2.5 GW of residential arrays.

The ability of residential and commercial energy storage systems to enable on-site solar to help balance the grid should also prompt politicians to encourage batteries, said BloombergNEF and Schneider, with policy nudges suggested including adjusted rates paid by utilities for excess power exported to the grid; time-of-use electricity prices, “aggregation” payments to homes and businesses for use of their storage systems; and demand charges levied on businesses for consuming electricity during peak hours.

In a nod to the initial feed-in tariffs offered for solar electricity in many markets as the technology first emerged – most of which were withdrawn at short notice, with some governments retroactively reneging upon contracts – the report cautioned legislators against laying down incentives which could fuel “an unsustainable boom,” given solar and storage technology appears set to get cheaper over time.

The $3.5 billion raised by state-owned energy company China Three Gorges Renewables and the $2.4 billion generated by Chinese solar manufacturer Longi helped the global clean energy sector raise a record $28.2 billion during the first six months of the year.

The Renewable Energy Investment Tracker report from  analyst BloombergNEF  tracked a first-half record $174 billion of investment in clean power, with bumper equity investments more than compensating for a reduction of finance for wind projects. Wind technology posted a banner year in 2020.

The $28 billion raised by renewables companies cashing in on the share price peaks reached at the start of the year marked a 509% rise on the equity investment compared to the January-to-June period of last year, according to BloombergNEF. The analyst noted that 2021 has also posted a six-month record of $5.7 billion worth of venture capital and private equity backing.

While the $85 billion invested in wind power projects during the first six months of last year eased to $58 billion for the same period this year, the report said that solar parks banked a record $78.9 billion.

That finance included $4.9 billion in the second quarter alone in China, following a $2.8 billion investment in January to March. In the U.S., the report stated, investment of $5.3 billion in solar projects during the first quarter rose to $6.4 billion in the April to June time period.

BloombergNEF head of analysis Albert Cheung warned, however, that 1.8% year-on-year increase is “nothing to write home about.” He said that “an immediate acceleration in funding is needed if we are to get on track for global net zero.”

From pv magazine Global

Longgen Zhang, CEO of Chinese polysilicon manufacturer Daqo New Energy, made no mention of potential political roadblocks in the U.S. to the supply of Xinjiang-made poly when he presented his company’s second-quarter reports, stating: “Market conditions remain strong for the polysilicon sector.”

Daqo expects another 180-220,000 metric tons of poly production lines to appear next year – enough to supply 240-250 GW of solar modules and 200-210 GW of generation capacity, the company said – and anticipates the polysilicon price will keep rising. However, that will not be enough to dent soaring global demand for photovoltaics according to the Daqo chief.

With commentators having observed a leveling off in the poly price in recent weeks – and Zhang himself stating the figure had been steady at $26-28/kg in July and this month – the Daqo chief executive added: “We expect the strong price momentum to continue into the second half of this year.”

He put that prediction down to a failure to dent global demand for PV and to solar panel makers passing on the cost of more expensive polysilicon to their customers. The major solar manufacturers could learn a thing or two from Daqo in that respect, it seems, with a polysilicon production cost rise of two cents per kilogram between the first and second quarters of this year translating into an $8.91 hike in average selling prices over the same period, to $20.81/kg in the April-to-June period.

That added up to a revenue rise from the $256 million recorded in the first three months of the year to $441 million in the last quarter and net income for Daqo shareholders of $232 million, up from $83 million in the previous period. The year-on-year figures spell out how much the poly price has leaped, with Daqo posting revenue of $134 million in the second quarter of last year, for net income of just $2.4 million.

In terms of production volume, Daqo said its Xinjiang facilities manufactured 21,102 metric tons (MT) of polysilicon in the last quarter, up from 20,185 in Q1, although sales volume dipped over the same period, from 21,471 MT to 21,060.

Daqo recently raised RMB6.45 billion ($994 million) by floating its main business unit on the Chinese A-share market and said trading on Shanghai’s Sci-Tech Innovation Board began on July 22. That windfall will help fund plans to expand annual production capacity to 270,000 MT by 2025, the company said.

From pv magazine Global

Chinese state-controlled manufacturer Luoyang Glass said the nation produced 42,000 tons of polysilicon and 14 GW of solar modules in June alone.

The glassmaker reported the numbers as it announced its first-half figures, and said China had made 238,000 tons of polysilicon in the first half of the year, as well as 105 GW of silicon wafers, 92.4 GW of solar cells and 80.2 GW of solar modules.

Luoyang said those figures were “recently released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology” and amounted to a 57% year-on-year rise in cell output, a 51% hike in module production, a 40% uplift in wafer manufacturing and 16% growth in polysilicon output.

The bumper effect of solar panel glass prices which continued to rise into the first quarter of this year was illustrated by a first-half net profit of RMB222 million ($34.2 million) from Luoyang’s new energy glass unit, a rise from RMB68.8 million in January-to-June last year. The 2021 six-month figure came from new energy operating income of RMB1.4 billion ($216 million), up from RMB822 million ($127 million) a year ago.

By contrast, Luoyang’s other main business, providing glass for information displays, posted a first-half net profit of RMB25.6 million ($3.95 million), from operating income of RMB195 million ($30 million).

The manufacturer said two new solar module glass production facilities in Hefei and Tongcheng remain on track to start operations next month and in November, respectively, and added plans are progressing for another new fab in Yixing.

From pv magazine Global

The latest version of the Photovoltaics Report produced by German research body the Fraunhofer Institute of Solar Energy Systems (ISE) has laid bare the state of European photovoltaic manufacturing at the end of 2020.

The continent had 22.1 GWp of solar-grade polysilicon production capacity at that point, according to an executive summary of the latest update of the document. According to the report, Europe’s polysilicon capacity was held by Norwegian-based, Chinese state-controlled manufacturer Elkem, and by German businesses Wacker and Silicon Products.

By contrast, Europe had just 1.25 GW of solar wafer production capacity at the end of 2020, according to the Fraunhofer ISE report, based in Norway, at Norsun and REC Silicon-owned Norwegian Crystals; and in France, at energy company EDF‘s Photowatt operation. The lack of European cell manufacturing capacity was even more glaring, with the study estimating just 650 MW of facilities, held by Finnish business Valoe, at its fab in Lithuania; by Italian energy business Enel in its homeland; and by Ecosolifer, in Hungary.

The market had 6.75 GW of solar module production capacity at the end of the year, however, spread across 29 companies identified by the research institute. That marked 3% of the world’s silicon solar module market last year, stated the report’s authors, with China contributing 67% as part of the 95% accounted for by the wider Asian region, and producers in the U.S. and Canada claiming 2%.

The study offered an insight into the energy payback time of a typical, Chinese-made, 60-cell, PERC, 19.9%-efficient solar module. Such a panel, mounted in India, would take only 160.6 days to generate the amount of energy consumed during its production process, with the figure rising all the way to 1.42 years – 518.3 days – in Canada. In the examples cited by the report’s authors, the balance-of-system, non-generating components required the most time to displace their energy footprint, between 138.7 and 167.9 days.

The statistics offered up by the Fraunhofer ISE included the facts PV accounted for 10.6% of Germany’s electricity generation capacity, 5.3% of Europe’s and 3.2% of the world’s. German rooftop PV systems cost between €890 and €1,850 per kilowatt-peak of capacity last year; large scale power plants in the nation offer a current levelized cost of energy of €0.031-0.057/kWh; and the lowest tendered tariff for solar electricity remains a €0.0433/kWh bid registered in February 2018.

Despite the dramatic shift in module production from Europe to Asia witnessed from 2010 onwards, Germany accounted for 7.6% of all the solar capacity installed worldwide by the end of last year, with Europe as a whole hosting 23%, China 36%, North America 12%, Japan 9%, India 6% and the rest of the world 14%, including off-grid capacity.

Inverters

Referring to data provided by British market data company IHS Markit, the report estimated current inverter costs of €0.03-0.17/Wp for the string products which account for 64.4% of the market; €0.04/Wp for central inverters which cater to 33.7%; €0.08 for DC/DC power optimizers which have a 5.1% market share; and €0.25/Wp for the microinverters which occupy a 1.4% global niche.

Taking a longer view across numerous graphs, the study also illustrates how Germany’s solar feed-in tariff went off a cliff just as household electricity prices began a steady rise during 2008-13, and fleshed out how the nation added peak volumes of around 7-8 GWp of solar capacity in the years 2010, 2011 and 2012, immediately after production shifted to the Far East. For European manufacturers, however, it may be encouraging to see Germany’s installs back rising at a steady 1 GW or so per year since 2017.

From pv magazine Global

Polysilicon market analyst Johannes Bernreuter said that China imported around 30% less polysilicon in 2020 and cornered 80% of the global market for its domestic manufacturers, fueled by low electricity prices.

Chinese imports of U.S.-made polysilicon slumped in 2020, largely due to heavy customs duties. The 9,227 MT of product moved across the Pacific in 2019 fell to 2,659 MT last year, reflecting the 2019 shuttering of the Moses Lake facility in Washington state owned by Norwegian business REC Silicon.

“South Korea’s polysilicon industry was out-competed by Chinese producers who enjoy extremely low and subsidized electricity rates from coal-fired power plants in the western regions of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia,” said Bernreuter. He said that Korean players OCI and Hanwha exited the market a year ago, citing electricity prices.

That decision prompted the volume of South Korean polysilicon imported by China to fall from 48,881 metric tons (MT) in 2019 to 15,331 MT last year, according to the analyst. Korean poly had made up more than 70,000 MT of imports by China in 2016 and 2017, before the nation’s third largest manufacturer of the commodity–Hancook Silicon–became insolvent in 2018.

OCI is still supplying the product to China, however, via its Malaysian manufacturing operation, which supplied 23% of Chinese polysilicon imports last year, according to Bernreuter.

With German manufacturer Wacker supplying 50,061 MT of polysilicon to China in 2020–despite running production at 70% capacity from May to July–Bernreuter estimated that German and Malaysian-made product will account for almost 90% of China’s poly imports this year. The amount of polysilicon shipped by Wacker to China slipped last year, from 52,667 MT in 2019.

When Zvi Lando, chief executive of Israeli PV inverter company Solaredge said yesterday his company’s fourth-quarter results were “reflective of strength in the U.S. residential market and record revenues from outside of Europe and the U.S., led by Australia,” it is fair to assume he was referring to two encouraging developments.

However, the figures paint a picture of a tough fourth quarter, year-on-year, compared to the final three months of the Covid-free days of yore in 2019. What is beyond argument is that the inverter maker–which describes itself as a “smart energy” business after venturing into storage tech–achieved an impressive year of revenue progress on the 2019 results despite the global travails caused by Covid-19, and despite that tough end to the year.

Solaredge, which published its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results yesterday, shipped 1.36 GWac of inverters from October to December but nevertheless saw revenues fall to $358 million from the $418 million registered in the same period of 2019, just as the pandemic was stirring in China.

The figures

That meant gross profits in the last three months of last year came in at $110 million, from $143 million 12 months earlier just as R&D, sales and marketing and administrative expenses rose. Pre-tax profits in Q4 slumped to $24.8 million from the $61.6 million posted in October-to-December 2019, for a year-on-year fall in net income from $52.3 million to $17.7 million.

Far from capping a year of retreat, however, the close of 2020 failed to mask 12 months of revenue progress after Solaredge shipped 6.1 GWac of inverters in the period. That volume drove record annual revenues of $1.46 billion, mostly on the back of a record $1.36 billion raised from the sale of solar products, for a $300 million upside from the figure posted for 2019.

The revenue uplift was not sufficient to stave off an $18 million fall in gross profit, to $461 million, and rising R&D, sales and marketing and general administrative spending prompted a fall in pre-tax income, year on year, from $179 million to $164 million in 2020. That added up to a marginal fall in net income for last year, from $145 million in 2019 to $140 million. Not bad during a global health pandemic.

With Solaredge having freed up around $25 million in restricted bank deposits since the end of 2019, the company’s cash balance has risen from $224 million, at that point, to an $827 million warchest on December 31. The inverter maker secured more payments owed from its customers and piled up more inventory, year on year–further prudent actions during exceptional market conditions.

And the company was optimistic enough to predict a rebound in revenues from the fourth-quarter figures, with expectations of $385-405 million during the current three-month window, on the back of predicted solar income of $360-375 million.

From pv magazine Global

Panasonic announced it will exit the solar manufacturing industry within 14 months.

The Japanese brand issued a press release outlining plans to shutter its Malaysian factory, liquidate its Panasonic Solar Energy Malaysia subsidiary, and lay off staff by March 2022.

The manufacture of solar wafers, cells and modules at the company’s domestic fab, in Shimane prefecture, will also cease by the end of the next fiscal year, although no members of the Japanese workforce will be made redundant. Panasonic confirmed the Shimane fab will continue to manufacture inverters, batteries “and other products.”

The company will continue to sell solar modules with its brand, with their manufacture sub-contracted out. The third-party-manufactured products will be sold in Japan after domestic production ceases, Panasonic stated, as is already the case for overseas markets.

The decision to exit solar manufacturing will also prompt photovoltaic R&D activity at the company’s Nishikinohama factory in Kaizuka City, Osaka, to be “downsized,” with “human resources … shifted to other growth areas,” the company added.

Malaysian staff will not be so fortunate, with Panasonic stating it will “support impacted employees with sincerity, providing measures including premium severance payment[s] and outplacement assistance.”

The move comes after Panasonic in August walked away from a projected partnership with Chinese heterojunction module maker GS-Solar which would have seen the Japanese company’s Malaysian operation transferred to the Chinese business and a photovoltaic R&D operation established by the two partners. Having announced the potential tie-up in May 2019, Panasonic abandoned the plan five months ago, stating GS-Solar had missed two deadlines to honor its commitments under the partnership, and reserving the right to take legal action against the Chinese company to recover consequent losses.

From pv magazine Global

Solar and wind power will dominate the global energy market at the end of the decade as they become cheaper to install than the operational costs of fossil fuel facilities, according to a report published by management consultancy McKinsey & Company.

The 2021 Global Energy Perspective study predicts solar and wind power plants will make up almost half the world’s power generation capacity by 2035 and cites the cost competitiveness of renewables-powered green hydrogen by 2030 as another game changer for the energy transition.

With global coal-fired power demand having already peaked, according to the report, the high point for oil will be hit in 2029 and for gas, in 2037, McKinsey predicted. That would add up to the world’s thirst for all fossil fuels combined peaking in 2027.

The McKinsey report considers four future energy scenarios and, under its business-as-usual reference case, predicts the world is currently “significantly off of the 1.5C [degrees Celsius] pathway,” in terms of the maximum desired level of global heating. To keep global temperature rises to no more than 1.5C this century would require carbon emissions to halve this decade and to fall 85% by mid century, according to the study, which expects the world to burn through its 2100 carbon budget in the “early 2030s.”

In addition to the gloomy reference case, the study posits two positive future outlooks: one consistent with a 1.5C global heating pathway and a more ambitious scenario in which 10 existing trends, such as the move to electric vehicles, are accelerated. The final, worst-case outlook is predicated on the world’s policymakers prioritizing an economic recovery from Covid-19 to the detriment of energy transition-driven legislation.

The impact of Covid-19 is estimated to have hit global energy demand to the extent a recovery could take 1-4 years, according to the McKinsey report, with electricity and gas demand bouncing back faster than oil.

However, the report considers the continuation of pre-pandemic trends such as reduced car ownership to be a more influential driver of the energy transition than the impact of the world health crisis.

from pv magazine global

Consolidation continues in the renewables industry with the news this morning Norwegian clean energy company Statkraft is set to acquire London-based developer Solarcentury in a $152 million deal.

The move, which is expected to complete this year, subject to regulatory approval, will see Statkraft acquire Solarcentury’s 6-GW project pipeline in Europe and South America, according to a statement.

The acquisition could open up floating solar opportunities for a company which established its renewables reputation as a hydropower company.

Complementary technology

Statkraft CEO Christian Rynning-Tønnesen – quoted in the press release – said: “This acquisition is in line with our strategy to ramp up as a wind and solar developer and become one of the leading renewable energy companies globally. Just like hydropower and solar power complement each other, Statkraft and Solarcentury are an excellent fit in terms of purpose and people. Joining forces will accelerate our growth and continue to drive the energy transition forward.”

The acquisition mirrors a recently announced plan by Statkraft compatriot Scatec Solar to buy Norwegian state-owned hydropower company SN Power.

Solarcentury said it has developed 1.2 GW of clean energy projects in seven countries since 2013 and the Statkraft press release listed growing markets in Spain, the Netherlands, France, Greece, Italy, Chile and the U.K. as promising markets for the London-based business.

Statkraft said it would acquire its rival’s shares from London-based investors Scottish Equity Partners and Zouk Capital; Vantagepoint Capital, based in California; and from Grupo Ecos, which lists Panama City as its business address.

The Norwegian business has reportedly committed to developing 8 GW of solar and wind capacity by 2025.

From pv magazine global

While last quarter brought Norwegian polysilicon producer REC Silicon news of a welcome respite from its domestic tax authorities, the most momentous developments for the company have occurred this month.

On October 13, the manufacturer – which has all its wholly-owned manufacturing facilities on U.S. soil – signed agreements to supply solar-grade polysilicon to a U.S. customer and to establish a production line for silicon anodes for lithium-ion batteries at its Moses Lake site.

With recent weeks also bringing another big tax settlement – this time with the local authorities in Grant County, Washington state – and a big corporate fundraising exercise, Q4 could be the point at which the beleaguered manufacturer turned around its fortunes.

Shuttered

The Moses Lake facility halted production of fluidized bed reactor polysilicon for the solar industry in the second quarter of last year as REC Silicon was caught in the political crossfire between the White House and Beijing, with the trade tariffs slapped on U.S. polysilicon by China effectively killing the company’s solar business.

This month, however, REC Silicon signed a co-operation agreement with Portland, Oregon-based solar manufacturing start-up Violet Power to be part of a, non-Chinese silicon solar supply chain. On the same day, the Norwegian company announced a similar tie-up with Washington state-based Group 14 Technologies to establish commercial silicon anode production facilities at Moses Lake.

The latter deal would require fresh capital and REC Silicon, buoyed by a third-quarter decision by the Norwegian tax authorities to abandon an investigation into 2012-15 income matters – which had added up to a $27.2 million potential liability – completed the first, $31.6 million round of a private shares issue on Tuesday. A second tranche of equity will be issued next month – subject to a shareholder vote in Oslo on November 9 – and is expected to generate a gross $73 million.

The company settled its property rates dispute with Grant County by agreeing to pay $3 million by December 15 and then $1.75 million annually for the next six years. By pv magazine‘s calculation, that adds up to a $13.5 million settlement with $10.5 million payable after December, although the third-quarter update issued by REC Silicon today mentioned a $9.9 million note-payable to Grant County for the future monies.

Butte sale?

Either way, the company reported a $35.9 million cash pile at the end of last month, up $4.3 million from the previous quarter, with $3.6 million of that money coming from operating activity as the business continued to supply poly for the semiconductor industry and silane gas. Both those products were made at REC Silicon’s production facility in Butte, Montana which the company had previously stated it was prepared to sell. Talk of potential suitors was quietly brushed under the carpet in today’s more upbeat update.

That Grant County decision removed another $17.6 million net liability from REC Silicon’s accounts. That leaves just an indemnity loan related to the bankruptcy of a former subsidiary in 2012 – for which the company last year refused a claim for $15.7 million – as the sole historical worry to concern investors.

Vietnamese construction company Trungnam Group has announced the inauguration of what is thought to be the nation’s biggest solar project – the 450 MW Trung Nam Thuan Nam Solar Plant, in the southeastern province of Ninh Thuan.

The company on Monday announced completion of the project, including associated electricity grid improvements, and said the solar plant had been completed within 102 days of finance being agreed in April.

Trungnam stated the solar project, in the Phuoc Minh commune of Ninh Thuan’s Thuan Nam district, would generate 1.2 GWh of solar electricity in its first year of operation and “more than” 1 GWh annually thereafter.

The company said some 8,000 laborers and engineers carried out land clearance of the site in just 45 days and said it had joined with public bodies the Vietnamese Fatherland Front, the Thuan Nam communal people’s committee, and the provincial association of poor patients to donate 102 houses worth a total $220,000 to poor households during the build phase.

Noting that the government wanted Ninh Thuan province to become a “national renewable energy center,” Trungnam said the 500 kV transformer station and 220/500 kV power line installed as part of the project would enhance the grid in the province and the wider south central coast region.

When the global trade body for off-grid solar hosts a webinar about trends in the market next week, the role Covid-19 has played in plunging sales is likely to be high on the agenda, alongside the fact that investment in the sector in the first eight months of this year was entirely concentrated in just three companies.

Koen Peters, executive director of the Netherlands-based GOGLA off-grid solar association, and database specialist Silvia Francioso recently blogged on the website of GOGLA – formerly the Global Off-Grid Lighting Association – about the trends observed this year, ahead of Thursday’s launch of the organization’s GOGLA Deals Database 2019/YTD 2020 update.

The report notes that while the $198 million invested in off-grid PV to the end of August is broadly similar to the backing seen in the same period of last year, it found its way to only three, unnamed companies – which will hopefully be identified at the webinar organized to discuss the report’s findings, on October 13.

Concern

Of even more concern is the revelation that many stakeholders believe the money invested by the end of August is related to pre-Covid-19 agreements, hinting investment may suffer a sharp fall at any point. With the previous 50-50 split between equity and debt investment having shifted to 84% debt-driven funding in January-to-August this year, there are further reasons to question how sustainable existing lines of credit will prove.

The GOGLA report – compiled with Berkeley, California-based consultant Catalyst Off-Grid Advisors and supported by EU program GET.invest – reveals off-grid solar sales fell 26% year-on-year, from 4.1 million in the first half of last year to 3 million from January to June 2020.

Solar lighting product sales plunged 57% to 495,000 in South Asia – a market which also drove most of the 54% fall in off-grid fan sales – and 49% to 74,000 in the East Asia and Pacific market. East Africa experienced less of a fall in lighting sales, 11% to 1.6 million, and the West Africa (354,000 sales) and Central Africa (130,000) regions saw stable year-on-year figures, although GOGLA highlighted notable falls in previously strong Nigeria, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, mitigated by pre-Covid-agreed bulk transactions in Ghana and Sierra Leone.

First-half sales of off-grid TVs retreated 20% from the levels seen in the second six months of last year but were up 16% from January-to-June 2019, with GOGLA suggesting customers prioritized access to entertainment and information during the first national coronavirus lockdowns of the year.

GOGLA is also preparing to publish the Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report it compiled with the IFC Lighting Global program operated by the private-sector arm of the World Bank, the Washington DC-based Efficiency for Access global efficient appliances coalition and Dutch management consultancy Berenschot. That study, due on October 14, will provide more first-half off-grid solar insights.

From the pv magazine global site

Nirvana’s Lithium would seem the obvious starting point for a battery playlist compiled to celebrate Spotify co-founder Daniel Ek’s contribution to a $600 million fundraising exercise by European battery manufacturer Northvolt.

Ek, who is also CEO of the music streaming service, was among the contributors in a private shares issuance by the company, the results of which were announced today.

The fundraising round was led by Glasgow-based investment manager Baillie Gifford, which comes on board as a new investor, alongside established backers Goldman Sachs, Volkswagen, the Scania Swedish truckmaker owned by the German auto giant and the IMAS Foundation – sister fund to the Stochting Ingka Foundation co-founded by Ikea founder Ingvar Kamprad.

Ek is a new face, along with Cristina Stenbeck and fellow new backers Baron Capital Group, based in New York; Jersey-based Bridford Investments Ltd; Swedish start-up funder Norrsken VC; and Swiss manufacturer PCS Holding, which produces everything from textile equipment to trolley buses.

Northvolt, which aims to have 150 GWh of annual battery manufacturing capacity operating by 2030, said it would use the cash to expand its production lines and its R&D center as well as helping to establish a battery raw material recycling fab which will help it achieve its ambition of sourcing half its battery materials from recycled devices in a decade’s time.

Northvolt’s Ett battery gigafactory, in Skellefteå, Sweden – which will have a “potential” capacity of 40 GWh – is due to start production next year. The company’s Northvolt Zwei facility, at Salzgitter, Germany, is set to open with a 16 GWh annual capacity in 2024.

The company is also planning a giga-scale recycling center next to Northvolt Ett which will open with a 4 GWh annual capacity and is intended to become “the largest in the world,” according to Northvolt.

Mind you, It’s A Long Way to the Top, as any self-respecting AC/DC fan would tell you…

According to figures released by China’s National Energy Administration, small scale PV systems with a combined generation capacity of 1,016 MW were grid-connected in August alone. Some 3,949 MW of such arrays have been installed in the first eight months of the year, leaving a little over 2 GW before this year’s 6 GW incentives cap for small systems is reached. The provinces of Shandong – which added 434 MW of new small scale capacity last month – Hebei (240 MW) and Henan (103 MW) dominated the August figures.

Module manufacturer Suntech announced on Wednesday its Indonesian factory has begun production. The 500 MW cell and module fab is in Batam, the largest city in Riau Islands province, and has production lines compatible with 158 mm and 166 mm wafers. The facilities can be altered to accommodate 182 mm wafer production if needed, said Suntech. The facility is expected to double production capacity this year with its products earmarked for the Indonesian and U.S. markets, according to the manufacturer.

Hong Kong-listed polysilicon manufacturer and renewables developer Xinte Energy has offered new insight into global figures for the Covid-19-affected production and consumption of the raw material used for solar panels. Xinte, which is 88.43% owned by Chinese electricals company TBEA, on Wednesday said the world had 10% more annual polysilicon production capacity in the first six months of the year than during the same period of 2019, with a 265,000-ton figure, according to data published by the silicon industry branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Demand rose almost 11% over the same period but, nevertheless, at 257,000 tons, prompted an 8,000-ton surfeit of the material.

Solar module manufacturer Canadian Solar on Wednesday announced it completed a $230 million offering of 2.5%, five-year convertible senior notes. With buyers having the option of purchasing an additional $30 million in aggregate principal amount of the notes, Canadian Solar said it raised $223 million from the exercise.

With work intensifying on the preparation of China’s 14th five-year plan, one in-country analyst has predicted the renewable energy aspect of the national policy package could transform the Chinese solar sector.

Frank Haugwitz, director of the Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory (AECEA), has predicted changes being drawn up by the authorities will drive “unprecedented industry consolidation” as state-owned entities squeeze out private businesses in the downstream solar project segment of the industry. The analyst also expects Beijing to halt overly-ambitious production capacity expansion and said big solar players could head west.

Ever more ambitious production capacity plans have been outlined by the world’s biggest solar manufacturers since last year, even as energy consumption has slumped around the world because of Covid-19-related industrial shutdowns, prompting oversupply fears. The AECEA has predicted further solar component price falls in the next quarter, on top of an estimated 20% reduction in the cost of making solar wafers and cells during the January-to-May period, and a 10% retreat in module costs during the same window.

Consolidation

“Aggressive scaling up [of production capacity], driving innovation, increasing performance, combined with a continued price reduction pursued by leading companies has the potential to effectively wipe out smaller competitors in the near to mid-term, [and] thus may trigger an unprecedented industry consolidation,” wrote Haugwitz in the AECEA’s latest report on the Chinese PV industry.

The analyst said module production capacity in China was 17% higher in the first three months of the year than in the same period of last year, even though export levels fell slightly, down 3% to 15.6 GW. The authorities have moved to address the oversupply fears by mooting markedly higher minimum efficiency standards for Chinese-made solar products in the form of a guidance policy document issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Haugwitz wrote: “If effectively enforced, across the board, numerous existing manufacturers will face an uncertain future and may have to choose to exit the industry, because if such [quality] benchmarks won’t be met, local banks may refrain from providing loans for planned expansions.”

With pv magazine having reported on state-backed bail-outs of indebted solar project developers such as Panda Green and Singyes Solar, and with the main Chinese module production business of solar manufacturer Yingli having passed into the hands of court-appointed administrators last week, the AECEA report also noted the increasing say Beijing-controlled entities are set to have in the nation’s solar projects.

State-owned solar capacity

The consultancy reported power companies and other state-owned enterprises have been “aggressively bidding” for a large share of provincial solar project capacity. For instance, if plans submitted for 2.75 GW of grid-parity projects in the Guangxi autonomous region are approved by the National Energy Administration (NEA), 40% of the projects would be owned by the Chinese government, according to the AECEA.

In terms of new solar capacity, the consultant reported 3.95 GW had been added in the first quarter, with an estimated 1-1.5 GW expected from April and 2-3 GW last month. Haugwitz predicted a surge of new capacity this month as it marks the deadline for connecting projects approved for state subsidy last year.

pv magazine recently reported the maximum grid capacity being made available by China’s three largest grid networks for new solar this year was unlikely to restrict project deployment, based on estimates of how much new solar capacity is expected in 2020. Haugwitz, however, took a different view in yesterday’s report. The analyst pointed out, with 37 project lists – out of 60 demanded from China’s provinces – submitted by Saturday, the plants listed already added up to more capacity than has been freed up by network operators.

Today is the deadline for each of China’s 30 provinces to submit lists of applications for grid parity and for subsidized solar project capacity to the NEA. By Saturday, according to Haugwitz, 20 GW of grid parity applications had arrived from 16 provinces, together with 32 GW of subsidized plants from 21 provinces. That 52 GW of planned capacity already tops the 48.5 GW of the electricity networks offered up by the State Grid Corporation of China, China Southern Power Grid and Inner Mongolia Power Corp.

Grid constraints

The project submissions by the provinces include 110% of the available grid capacity in Guizhou, 133% of the network available in Hubei and 280% of the leeway offered in Ningxia, according to the AECEA, which added, solar electricity had been curtailed at rates of 2.8% in January, 5.6% in February and 1.8% in March, as energy consumption fell thanks to coronavirus containment measures.

The perennial problem facing China’s leaders of having rich renewable energy resources in the west of the vast nation and high-energy-demand population centers in the coastal east, has reportedly prompted the National Development and Reform Commission to offer a tax incentive to industries including solar cell makers and project developers, according to the AECEA. Haugwitz cited a recent decision to slash the tax rate, by 10% to 15%, for businesses which generate at least 60% of their annual income in the west of the nation.

In terms of the new five-year plan – which is expected to be issued for consultation in November and promulgated in early March – Haugwitz predicted a focus on hydrogen and energy storage as well as a possible removal of national renewable energy targets.

From pv magazine global

U.S. solar manufacturer First Solar today announced its manufacturing operations have not been affected by restrictions imposed by national and state governments to combat the spread of Covid-19 in the locations in which it has production lines.

However, use of the phrase “First Solar’s understanding” of the relevant orders illustrates the ambiguity related to the imposition of such measures in many locations around the globe.

While the Arizona-based manufacturer and project developer was clear in its statement that restrictions on movement imposed in Vietnam would not affect operations at its Ho Chi Minh City production line, it was less categorical about similar measures in Malaysia and in Ohio.

The company said today it understood its manufacturing sites at Perrysburg and Lake Township come under the category of essential businesses and operations which are exempted from the ‘stay at home’ order issued by the Ohio state government on Sunday.

Malaysia

Similarly, First Solar believes its production operation at Kulim in Malaysia is exempted from a widespread ban on public activity.

The U.S. manufacturer said it has taken measures at all of its sites – manufacturing, sales and administrative – to limit the spread of Covid-19.

With a nod to the fast-developing nature of the pandemic and the measures imposed to try and limit it, the company added: “First Solar cautions that the effects of the Covid-19 outbreak, including governmental efforts to contain the spread of the virus, are dynamic and subject to change at any time. This press release reflects information available to First Solar as of 8:15 a.m. (Eastern Time), on March 26, 2020.”

First Solar investors are still reeling from the announcement last month of a surprise $59 million loss in the final three months of last year and the decision of the board to consider selling off the company’s project development business to focus solely on manufacturing. Any hopes the company has of realizing value in its project business are likely to have been scuppered, at least for the time being, by the coronavirus crisis.

Having halted polysilicon production at its Moses Lake facility amid the China-U.S. trade war, Norwegian manufacturer REC Silicon ASA today announced it is prepared to consider putting the rest of the company into deep freeze to await a resolution between the White House and Beijing.

Since 2014, China has imposed trade measures on U.S.-made solar grade polysilicon in retaliation for earlier tariffs imposed on Chinese PV exports to America under the presidency of Barack Obama.

That has left REC, which has all of its manufacturing operations on U.S. soil, locked out of the world’s biggest solar market and in July prompted the company to shutter its poly production plant at Moses Lake, Washington for at least the rest of the year.

With the Trump administration ramping up tariffs on Chinese goods into a full-scale trade war, REC Silicon today announced in its third-quarter update it was prepared to field offers for its other U.S. production line, in Butte, Montana.

Silane gas operation

The fact any sale would leave the company without any operating wholly-owned production facilities – and the use of the phrase “retire the company’s debts” in relation to the proceeds of any sale, rather than the usual “pay down debts” – indicates operations at REC Silicon would almost entirely halt until the manufacturer could regain access to the Chinese polysilicon market.

Sale of the Butte facility, which supplies polysilicon and silane gases to semiconductor markets, would leave REC entirely dependent on the 15% stake it owns in a polysilicon plant in Yulin, China for revenue.

The dramatically changed nature of the business was illustrated by the fact the 142 MT of polysilicon shipped by REC in the latest three-month window – down from 201 MT in the previous quarter – was mentioned way down the press release issued to publicize today’s quarterly update.

Willing to sell

Instead, REC chose to emphasize its silane gas operation, as the supplier of 70% of the world’s market in such products. Even then, the 860 MT shipped in Q3 was 40 MT less than had been predicted in July for the quarter and REC said it had been forced to reduce the price 1.3% to maintain sales volume and expected little change in that level in the current quarter.

REC Silicon sells its gases to Asian semiconductor clients outside China and cited a fall in demand for the lower shipment volumes, although it stressed the trade war was the main reason for its latest reverse.

With just $46.2 million in the bank three days ago, the reasons for considering a sale of the Butte facility are obvious. REC, which also has a historic tax investigation by the Norwegian authorities hanging over it, said the proceeds of a sale would be “used to retire the company’s debts, to provide a buffer for contingent liabilities (tax examination and indemnity loan), and to prepare to restart FBR [fluidized bed reactor polysilicon] production in Moses Lake, Washington when the trade dispute with China is resolved and REC Silicon regains access to polysilicon markets in China.”

Over to you, President Trump.

The world of solar has lost one of its driving forces with the death of Guy Sella, founder and co-chairman of Israeli inverter giant SolarEdge.

The former venture capitalist founded the company in 2006 and subsequently stated: “We wanted to make solar energy smarter and more affordable to help mankind meet a justified growing energy demand in a sustainable way that reduces our global carbon footprint.”

That quote, made by the charismatic former CEO, was included in a video tribute to Sella produced by SolarEdge today. Speaking about his company’s guiding ethos, Sella said: “Doing something which is out of the ordinary, which we can share with our customers.”

“The joy and passion we have for what we do and the fact that at the end of the day, we’re all simple people and we behave this way and we treat ourselves in the same way and we don’t think our success is something that is unique.”

His spirit will live on

SolarEdge issued a statement in memory of its founder today which read:

It is with a very heavy and sad heart that we notify of the passing of our dear friend and inspiration, Guy Sella. All of us who had the privilege to work with Guy and be witness to his unwavering drive and infinite levels of energy and passion for what he did, know what a huge loss this is, not only to SolarEdge.

Guy has left an incredible legacy and his spirit will live on forever in SolarEdge. The entire SolarEdge family mourns his loss. On behalf of our board of directors, management team and employees, we extend our deepest sympathies to Guy’s family.

The legacy this solar pioneer leaves ensures one of his stated ambitions will be fulfilled.

“For people like us, who want to build a company,” Sella said, “the goal is for the company to last many years, even after us.”

The rise of electromobility and demand for stationary storage will drive lithium-ion battery costs down by a further 50% by 2040, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest Energy Storage Outlook report.

With costs for the technology having already tumbled 85% from 2010 to 2018, the business intelligence firm predicts 1,095 GW/2,850 GWh of energy storage will be installed in 21 years’ time, up from 9 GW/17 GWh last year.

By that point, China and the United States will dominate, according to the Energy Storage Outlook 2019 study, with significant markets in India and Germany and only slightly lower volumes in Latin America, Southeast Asia and France.

Australia, the U.K. and Japan will also have significant markets, as will current world leader for energy storage South Korea.

The role played by solar in the energy storage revolution was highlighted by BloombergNEF’s head of energy storage Logan Goldie-Scot in a press release issued by the firm to promote the report, published yesterday.

Solar-plus-storage

“In the near term, renewables-plus-storage – especially solar-plus-storage – has become a major driver for battery build,” said Goldie-Scot. By 2040, however, BloombergNEF predicts energy storage will have become a practical alternative to newly built generation assets of any kind.

In a significant indicator of the rapid rate at which stationary storage is altering the energy market, the 2019 report now predicts utility scale batteries will make up the majority of storage deployment by 2040. Until now the analysts have expected behind-the-meter batteries – whether in homes or businesses – to take the lead.

BloombergNEF also revised up the amount of investment energy storage will attract over the next 21 years, adding $40 billion for a predicted $662 billion.

The analyst has predicted solar and wind energy will supply almost 40% of the world’s electricity by 2040, up from 7% today and driving demand for the energy shifting/peaking services available to grid operators through battery storage. The study also predicts electric vehicles will make up a third of the global passenger transport fleet in 21 years’ time, up from less than half a percent today.

Noting the explosion in demand for energy storage will be good news for lithium, cobalt and nickel miners, the release issued to promote the annual report made no mention of attempts to develop battery chemistries with less ecologically damaging materials.

With the U.S. reportedly set to overtake South Korea to become the world’s biggest utility scale energy storage market this year, headline-grabbing tech darling Tesla has announced the arrival of its Megapack product.

A blogpost published on the Tesla website yesterday claimed the new utility scale battery – which is supplied fully assembled – enables the company to “deploy an emissions free, 250 MW/1 GWh power plant in less than three months on a three-acre footprint”, a speed four times faster than that for a fossil fuel plant of the same size, according to the company.

Tesla claims to have refined a product it says offers a 60% increase in energy density after the successful use of its Powerpack utility scale and business energy storage systems at the 100 MW/129 MWh Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia in December 2017.

Announcing the DC-connected Megapack can be plugged directly into solar power generation facilities as well as offering an AC interface, Tesla stated the new large scale product can be supplied with up to 3 MWh of storage and 1.5 MW inverter capacity and will be deployed at the 182.5 MW Moss Landing energy storage and grid balancing facility being planned by utility Pacific Gas & Electric in Moss Landing, California.

Automated energy trading

The company blogpost, penned by “The Tesla Team”, stated the Megapack is connected to the company’s Powerhub utility scale monitoring and control platform and can be integrated with Tesla’s Autobidder machine learning program for automated energy trading. Tesla claims its customers have used Autobidder to dispatch more than 100 GWh of energy worldwide to date.

The Palo Alto company headed by Elon Musk also boasted of installing more than 1 GWh of energy storage capacity in the last 12 months, through sales of the Powerpack and its Powerwall residential systems, to take it to more than 2 GWh of storage capacity sold to date.

Camron Barati, of business intelligence firm IHS Markit, in a recent article for pv magazine, predicted 712 MW of utility scale storage will be deployed in the U.S. this year in the wake of storage being permitted entry to energy, capacity and ancillary grid service markets and qualifying for a federal Income Tax Credit when deployed in solar-plus-storage facilities.

Barati added, up to 10 GW of utility scale PV generation capacity will be paired with energy storage facilities between this year and 2023.

Will polysilicon maker REC Silicon restart production at its facility in Moses Lake, Washington in 2022?

The second-quarter figures released by the company this morning based a long-term prediction for operations on that assumption but information elsewhere in the update as much as admitted the board had pulled a figure out of the air.

Trade measures imposed by Beijing on U.S.-made polysilicon imports – applied since 2014 in retaliation for tariffs instituted by former U.S. president Barack Obama on Chinese solar modules and cells shipped to the States – this month forced the Moses Lake facility into a long-term shutdown REC expects to last for at least the remainder of the year.

The Norwegian manufacturer had twice postponed the drastic measure, with the latest such step taken in the hope U.S. president Donald Trump and opposite number Ji Xinping would make progress towards resolving their trade war at the G20 meeting held in Osaka at the end of last month.

With nothing but platitudes emerging from a meeting held between the two in Japan, the outlook for REC’s silicon operations was summed up in one sober line of its Q2 figures: “The timing or outcome of any potential resolution remains uncertain”.

Trade war stand-off

That not only spelt bad news for the latest 100 Moses Lake workers laid off this month but leaves REC Silicon ASA’s future almost entirely dependent on the polysilicon it produces for semiconductors. That reality was laid bare in three-month figures which showed the solar materials business contributed a $9.4 million loss to an EBITDA return of $500,000 salvaged by $15.2 million in revenue from the semiconductor product made at REC’s operation in Butte, Montana.

The optimistic decision to delay the Moses Lake shutdown also came with a bill as Trump and Xi’s intransigence and higher-than-expecting shuttering costs added $1.7 to the $18.5 cost of manufacturing each kilogram of the company’s fluidized bed reactor output of 980 MT during the second quarter.

REC expects to run down the remainder of its 1,435 MT solar grade polysilicon inventory in the remainder of the year, having cleared 1,059 MT in the last three months.

Other problems

With an 18,000 MT facility described by its owners as the world’s largest granular polysilicon manufacturing center not expected to produce any output for at least the rest of the year, there was little respite from the market for silane gas used in PV cell manufacturing, with the company citing low sales into PV applications.

And the Chinese poly producing joint venture set up with Shaanxi Non-ferrous Tian Hong New Energy Co Ltd provided little relief either, as it drained a further $3.1 million in equity from the Norwegian partner and is operating at less than full capacity after a problem closed one of its two silane units in February. The unit is expected to restart production in the fourth quarter.

With REC noting the current global polysilicon glut will mean “high-cost suppliers are expected to exit the market”, the company’s fate appears to rest on semiconductor demand and there is a further worrying caveat for investors. The Norwegian tax authorities are continuing to question the manufacturer’s returns for 2009-11 and REC is also appealing taxable property estimates made by Grant County in Washington state for 2012-15, with regards to its Moses Lake facility.